At the next NBA board of governors meeting, due to be held at the end of March 2026, 30 NBA owners will vote on whether to add two more teams to the league, taking the number up to 32. While not certain, it seems likely that two new teams will be added in Seattle and Las Vegas.
Seattle has long been campaigned to get their team ‘back’ after the Seattle Supersonics were taken away to Oklahoma to become the Oklahoma City Thunder, while Las Vegas will be looking to complete the set of major sports league franchises and adding a basketball team to go with its NFL, NHL, and MLB teams, while the WNBA has had the Las Vegas Aces in situ since 2018 with the city celebrating three WNBA titles since.
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If the vote passes, the new NBA franchises will come into existence for the start of the 2028-29 season, giving the teams time to put the necessary infrastructure in place. However, the path to 2028 will not be straightforward.
Firstly, it is not guaranteed that Seattle and Las Vegas will be selected as the new franchise homes, but this does seem to be the direction of travel. Seattle is the 13th largest media market in the United States, ahead of places such as Miami, Cleveland, Denver, Orlando, and Sacramento, all of which have NBA teams.
Only Tampa is a larger market without already having an NBA team, and that is serviced by Miami and Orlando. Las Vegas has a smaller market, the 42nd largest media market in the US, but has natural appeal given its links to gambling and the push to diversify its economy, which seems to be largely built around sports.
According to a University of Las Vegas research study in 2023, sporting events have generated over $1.8 billion in annual economic growth for the city, with the Raiders and Golden Knights helping drive visitors to ‘Sin City’ alongside other events such as the Super Bowl, the annual F1 race, and WrestleMania.
Given the frequency of NBA games, with 41 home games, this impact would only grow with a permanent home for the NBA in Las Vegas, which has become a home from home for the NBA, with the city hosting the Summer League tournament and the NBA Cup finals.
There is already plenty of evidence that Seattle would be a win for the NBA, given the enduring popularity of the Sonics and its potential TV market, who were stolen away when Starbucks founder and Sonics owner Howard Schultz sold the team to Clay Burnett following a wrangle with the City of Seattle regarding public funds to construct a new arena. Given the strength of feeling and the call for Seattle to get a team in the intervening years, it is unlikely that this would be rejected by the owners.
However, ultimately everything comes down to money, and the finances of expansion are perhaps the most interesting aspect of the process. The current 30 owners of NBA teams each own 3.3% of the league, which will drop to around 3.1% should expansion go ahead, so given this, why would the owners effectively vote to dilute their stake?
The answer lies in expansion fees. Expansion is not free, with the new owners of the teams effectively having to buy their way into the league. With two of the largest names in the NBA having been sold in the last two years, namely the Boston Celtics going for just over $6bn and the LA Lakers being sold for a market price of $10bn, this would be the a strong indicator for the type of fee required for expansion and would mean that the two new owners would need to find somewhere between $6-10bn to buy their way in.
If we take a mid-range point of $8bn as the buy-in point per team, this money would be split between the 30 existing owners, giving each owner over $533m. While a higher fee would likely mean the new teams would get a share of the 10-year, $76bn media rights already in place, the economics of allowing expansion would make a lot of sense for the owners themselves.
While some owners may vote against expansion to spite the NBA due to their own personal grievances, 23 out of the 30 would need to agree for expansion to move forward, and that figure will likely be reached. With increased competition, increased TV markets, and hopefully a better product, the NBA will already be looking at the next TV rights deal with a view to getting an even greater number from broadcasters desperate for content.
For the new owners, this is likely a shrewd investment – while the Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers have been sold for around $4bn, the top end of the valuation market promises significant riches, and with values only going up, investment in sports and in particular the NBA seems to be a smart move.
