SYDNEY — Nothing beats home field advantage at the Olympic Games.
Although profits, ticket sales and television ratings provide methods of comparing different Olympic Games, it is the achievements of the local athletes that give each Games a unique flavour.
By that measure, Sydney promises to be one of the most exhilarating Games in modern Olympic history.
Australians already pride themselves on their sporting achievements but even by their own lofty standards, the Games are shaping as a watershed for a country that treats sport as seriously as religion or politics.
Colonised at a time when organised sport was starting to take root in Britain, Australians have had a love affair with sport since the first white settlers arrived in 1788.
And now, whether by design or coincidence, Australia is in the middle of a golden age of sport unrivalled since Melbourne hosted the 1956 Olympic Games.
In 1999, Australian teams won the cricket, rugby union and netball World Cups. Their tennis players won the Davis Cup and their rugby league, rowing, canoeing, lawn bowls and baseball teams all won major titles.
Ian Thorpe, Grant Hackett, Michael Klim and Susan O’Neill dominated world swimming while Cathy Freeman retained her 400 metres crown at the world athletics championships.
Kostya Tszyu won the World Boxing Council junior-welterwight belt and Karrie Webb finished the year as the world’s top female golfer.
Australians won both the men’s and women’s world surfing titles while Zali Steggall became the first Australian to win an alpine skiing crown when she won the slalom gold at the 1999 world championships.
Confidence soars
As the Games draw closer, confidence is soaring that the domino effect of victory in other fields will translate into a record haul at Sydney.
The prediction is that the strains of the national anthem Advance Australia Fair will be played endlessly at the tracks, pools, courts, fields and indoor arenas of the Games.
Australian Olympic chief, John Coates, has brashly predicted that the home team will win at least 60 medals in Sydney, 19 more than in Atlanta, including a record 20 gold.
So confident is Coates that he has wagered a bet with the IOC’s man in charge of the Sydney Games, Jacques Rogge, on the number of medals Australia will win.
For every medal over 60, Rogge must buy Coates a bottle of champagne. For every medal under 60, Coates must return the favour.
Some of the country’s top coaches, including swimming chief Don Talbot, have criticised Coates for applying unnecessary pressure on the athletes. But the former Olympic rower not only stands by his prediction, but also says he expects Australia to finish in the top five on the overall medals table.
Coates’ forecast is based on the premise that the home team almost always performs well at the Olympic Games.
South Korea failed to win a medal of any description at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games but won 33, including 12 golds, when Seoul hosted the Games in 1988.
Similarly, Spain won 13 gold medals when the 1992 Games were held in Barcelona after winning one in Seoul. Four years later, in Atlanta, the Spanish won just five golds.
Sydney set to surpass Melboure
Despite being one of only a few countries to have appeared at every summer Olympic Games, Australia’s best result, unsurprisingly, was at Melbourne when they won 13 golds.
There are several reasons why teams do better in their own country. Although there are many cases of athletes cracking under pressure, most tend to thrive on the home crowd’s support and are relaxed in their own climate and conditions.
Teams are also generally better prepared when the Games are held in their own country. Sponsors and governments, keen to promote the inevitable orgy of nationalism, invariably increase their funding of sports and free up resources.
The host nation is also given certain guarantees to allow them to select a much larger team than usual. While other countries have to qualify for most events, the host nation is awarded an automatic place in most sports.
This is particularly helpful in team events as the IOC, in an attempt to keep a ceiling on the total number of competitors at the Games, has placed new restrictions on the number of teams in most sports.
In women’s water polo, which will make its Olympic debut in Sydney, Australia is one of just six competing countries, effectively giving them a one-in-two chance of winning some sort of medal. Australia is also one of only six pairs entered in synchronised diving.
Partly because of this, Australia are expected to do well in most of the team events. Their hockey, basketball, baseball, soccer and softball teams are all tipped to be serious medal contenders, though their results over the past two years suggest they would have been anyway.
But the bulk of Australia’s medals will almost certainly come from their individuals, with the swim team expected to contribute more than a third of the overall count.
Thorpe, the home-bred teenager who lives with his parents less than 10 kilometres from the Olympic pool, is almost certain to be one of the big names of Sydney.
As the current world record holder for 200 and 400 metre freestyle, the ‘Thorpedo’ is expected to win three or possibly four gold medals depending on the outcome of the relays.
Hackett, Klim and O’Neill are also on line for gold if they can reproduce their recent performances when it matters most while a host of fresh-faced newcomers, including 15-year-old breaststroker Leisel Jones, are set to leave their mark.
Living on the world’s largest island, it should come as no surprise that Australia is expected to do well across all water sports, including rowing and sailing.
Equestrian, shooting, tennis and cycling are other sports in which Australians traditionally do well.
The glamour sport of athletics is not exactly Australia’s strong point but in Freeman they not only possess a gold medal favourite but also a passionate and outspoken ambassador for an entire people.
Much will be made of Freeman if she wins gold in Sydney. Not only is she expected to carry the weight of the entire track and field team but also the hopes of Australia’s indigenous population.
A proud aboriginal who has never forgotten her roots or hesitated to speak out against issues she opposes. Hers would be one of the most symbolic and celebrated victories of any competitor at Sydney.
Julian Linden
Source: SOCOG